2.1.1 Climate change
In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its sixth assessment report on climate change [1]. The report states that emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses produced by human activities have warmed the planet at an unprecedented rate.
Average global temperatures have already been reported to have risen by 1.1 °C, and estimates predict that warming is expected to reach or even exceed 1.5°C in the next twenty years unless there is a strong and sustained reduction in CO2 emissions.
With a rise of 1.5°C, the length of dry seasons will increase with shorter cool seasons and heat waves will become more common place. If warming continues to 2°C, critical tolerance levels for health and agriculture may be reached and many of the effects will be irreversible for centuries to come.
Changes in climate have been noted in cocoa growing regions and various climatic models have projected scenarios of climate change and its effects on cocoa (predominantly in West Africa). Changes in climate will cause a shift in cocoa production, with some areas becoming more suitable for cocoa and some less suitable.
Predictions by Schroth et al. (2016) [2] show that climate change will significantly reduce the suitability of areas in West Africa for cocoa production due to decreased rainfall and climate drying, this could have the potential of increasing the risk of deforestation in more suitable areas as land is cleared to produce cocoa.
These predicted changes in climate and what is currently being observed on the ground have spurred on the search for new climate-smart adaptation strategies including selection of more drought resistant cocoa varieties, revisiting agroforestry systems and reducing carbon emissions through the reduction in the use of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides. If the effect of climate change is uncertain for cocoa production, it also raises uncertainties around how changing weather patterns will affect cocoa pests and diseases let alone their natural enemies - at this point in time, very little is known on the subject.
